Overseas
In the first half of 2025, the grocery retail landscape has placed more emphasis on the depth of promotions rather than their quantity. The average discount matters more than frequency. Polarization between channels is clear: hypermarkets and supermarkets are trying to recover traffic with sharper reductions, while discounters and proximity stores defend price consistency and continuity. A common ground is the search for volume without sacrificing margins too heavily.
The demand context is favorable. Between January and April 2025, total in-store spending exceeded €45 billion, with Packaged Consumer Goods growing both in value and in volume. This creates a “floor” that allows for planning, though it doesn’t solve the pressure on department P&Ls. Data released by NIQ at Linkontro confirm these dynamics, with superstores and discounters progressing in volumes in the first four months of the year.
Commercial levers show promotional pressure at around a quarter of sales, with the potential for further increases in the second half of the year to support competitiveness. In short: fewer promotions overall, but deeper discounts—especially in large retail formats.
From the aisle to the sea: impact on the seafood category
This scheme is mirrored in food categories where planning is simpler. Canned fish and frozen seafood absorb deeper discounts because they allow advance planning, family-size formats, and clear mechanics (multipacks, special prices). Here, depth can push volumes without increasing waste. By contrast, in the fresh fish counter, prices remain “day-to-day” and value is built around origin, processing quality, FAO fishing area, and certifications—levers that sustain positioning without resorting to extreme cuts.
Operational costs also help. In May 2025, the average price of marine diesel in major European ports, including Italy, was lower than in May 2024. This is a positive sign for cold-chain logistics and procurement costs, even if it does not fully offset the impact of very deep discounts on the margins of processors and retailers.
What to watch in the second half of 2025
For packaged seafood, it pays to concentrate promotional depth on truly elastic references (tuna, mackerel, fillets in oil, breaded and portioned frozen products), avoiding brand “trivialization” with continuous cuts. For fresh fish, the key is to protect value: emphasize origin and fishing or farming methods, focus on service and assortment, and apply targeted discounts only during consistent demand windows.
Monitoring volumes and prices of Italian catch in Q1 2025 confirms the need for precise mix management: fewer scattergun promotions, more precision in timing and packaging.
In brief: depth is a powerful tool if used wisely. Push it where risk is lower and elasticity higher (canned and frozen fish), while in fresh counters protect quality and brand identity. This way, the seafood category sustains competitiveness without sliding into a discount spiral.
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