Overseas
In 2025, Italian grocery retail trends show consumers balancing prudence, selectivity, and a growing search for value. This insight emerged during the webinar “New Consumers, New Challenges: Signs of Change in Modern Retail” organized by GS1 Italy within the ECR framework, where Circana presented key developments in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector.
The research depicts a scenario of “ordinary uncertainty”: inflation has slowed (+1.4%), yet sales volumes began to decline after summer as consumers grew more attentive to price and convenience. According to Circana, supermarkets and discount chains continue to drive value growth, with increases of +3.4% and +9.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, private labels (MDD) now account for 30.3% of total value, confirming strong consumer confidence in retailer brands.
GS1 Italy’s ECR Optimal Shelf Availability (OSA) project — a continuous monitoring system covering more than 2,500 Italian retail stores — tracks stockouts and lost sales through a shared database. The OSA Barometer shows average out-of-stock levels stabilizing around 3.4%, and lost sales dropping below 5%, signaling ongoing improvements in shelf availability.
Yet the impact of stockouts remains significant: 39% of shoppers switch brands, and 32% change retailers when their desired product is unavailable, according to Circana’s Consumer Survey Global 2025.
For companies, this means data accuracy and demand planning have become strategic levers to preserve customer loyalty and protect margins.
Industry and Retail: Shared Efficiency
GS1 Italy promotes an approach that makes supply chain efficiency a shared objective between manufacturers and retailers: a common KPI language, replicable analytics, and regular reporting that help identify the structural causes of stockouts and drive targeted corrective actions. This collaborative model enhances coordination among producers, logistics, and retailers.
The report also highlights that fresh food and produce remain the most affected categories, with average out-of-stock rates of 4.6% and 10.2%, respectively. These figures are particularly relevant for the seafood sector, where effective cold chain management, logistics, and seasonal planning are essential to maintain consistent assortment and product quality.
In a market increasingly driven by value and informed consumption, the challenge for the agri-food chain is clear: turn data into knowledge and knowledge into efficiency. Only a collaborative, transparent data management model between industry, retail, and logistics can meet new consumer expectations and ensure long-term competitiveness.
From the GS1 Italy and Circana data emerges a retail system in transition: consumers seek value, service, and product availability, while the supply chain responds with a new culture of shared data. In 2025, efficiency has become the most tangible form of economic sustainability.
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