Overseas
What drives global seafood demand over the long term? An econometric analysis of 124 countries between 1990 and 2022 identifies income, measured through per capita GDP, as the most robust determinant of seafood consumption across regions, continents and income groups. Demand strengthened across all major areas examined, although at very different rates. Asia recorded the strongest growth, with China showing an estimated average annual increase in seafood demand of around 4.6%. Crucially, this does not mean that Chinese seafood consumption volumes increased by 4.6% every year.
More seafood being consumed does not necessarily mean that demand itself has strengthened. The distinction may sound technical, but for producers, importers, processors and distributors it changes the way a market should be interpreted.
Higher consumption can result from greater product availability, population growth or changing prices. A structural increase in demand means something different: under comparable market conditions, consumers are willing to purchase more seafood or allocate more value to it.
That distinction lies at the heart of Global seafood demand in transition, a study by Dejene Gizaw Kidane, Øystein Myrland and Dengjun Zhang, published in Aquaculture Economics & Management. Global seafood demand in transition
The researchers examined more than three decades of data, assessing the influence of per capita GDP, seafood prices, trade openness, food prices, urbanisation, population and demographic structure. The objective was not simply to identify where more seafood is consumed, but to understand which factors are most consistently associated with consumption and how demand has shifted over time.
Higher consumption does not automatically mean stronger demand
The study starts from per capita apparent seafood consumption, expressed in edible weight.
This indicator is calculated from domestic production plus imports, adjusted for stock changes, minus exports and non-food uses, and then divided by the population.
It therefore does not directly measure what consumers buy at supermarket checkouts or order in restaurants. Instead, it provides a proxy that allows very different countries to be compared over a period of more than thirty years.
The authors then combine changes in per capita consumption and prices with estimated elasticities to construct an index of demand growth. The aim is to identify structural shifts in demand while separating them, as far as the model allows, from changes in quantities and prices alone.
For seafood businesses, the distinction is highly relevant.
Two markets may record similar growth in consumption but for completely different reasons. In one, additional supply may be the main driver. In another, consumers may have developed a stronger underlying preference or willingness to spend on seafood.
China: what the 4.6% figure actually means
China provides the clearest example.
Across the countries analysed, estimated average annual demand growth ranges from approximately -3% to more than +8%. For China, the world’s largest seafood-consuming market in the study, the estimate is around +4.6% per year between 1990 and 2022.
That does not mean Chinese consumers ate 4.6% more seafood every year.
The figure represents the estimated shift in demand produced by the methodology used in the study. Treating it as a straightforward increase in physical consumption volumes would therefore misinterpret the result.
The geographic pattern remains significant. East Asia and the Pacific record the strongest regional growth, while Asia leads at continental level. By income group, the largest increase is found among upper-middle-income countries, followed by high-income economies.
These figures are not forecasts. They describe demand trajectories reconstructed for the 1990–2022 period.
Income is the factor that changes least across markets
The most commercially relevant result emerges when the researchers examine what lies behind these trajectories.
At global level, higher per capita GDP and greater trade openness are associated with higher seafood consumption.
In the model that also addresses possible price endogeneity, the coefficient for per capita GDP is 0.541. In economic terms, a 1% increase in per capita GDP is associated, all other variables being equal, with approximately a 0.54% increase in per capita seafood consumption.
The price result is very different. In the same specification, the estimated elasticity is -0.037. The negative sign is consistent with economic theory, but the small magnitude suggests that global seafood demand is relatively insensitive to price changes within the model.
The most robust finding, however, appears when the analysis moves from the global level to individual regions, continents and income groups.
Income is the only determinant that maintains a positive and sufficiently consistent effect across the different geographical and economic classifications.
Prices, trade, the cost of other foods, urbanisation and demographic variables can all matter, but their direction, strength and statistical significance change depending on the market.
For seafood companies, the implication is straightforward: there is no single commercial lever that produces the same result everywhere.
For seafood companies, the real question is why a market is growing
Income does not operate in isolation. Seafood must also be available and economically accessible.
Between 1990 and 2022, global aquaculture production of aquatic animals increased by roughly 3.5 times, reaching 94.4 million tonnes in 2022. The authors identify the expansion of aquaculture as one factor that may have increased both product availability and affordability, particularly in some of Asia’s largest markets.
The relationship between production capacity, market access and consumer demand is part of the broader structural transformation already reshaping the global seafood industry. Global Seafood Industry Trends 2026: Markets, Tech and Demand
The authors themselves caution against attributing Asia’s stronger demand growth solely to consumer behaviour. Domestic production capacity, aquaculture expansion and increased market availability can amplify the effects of economic growth.
The results also need to be interpreted carefully.
To make a global comparison possible, the study uses import and export unit values as proxies for domestic seafood prices because consistent consumer-price series are not available for all 124 countries. Its demand-growth calculation also assumes that elasticities remain constant over time.
These are acknowledged methodological limitations and mean that the findings should not be treated as precise forecasts of future seafood markets.
For the industry, however, the conclusion is more useful than a simple ranking of countries where consumption is rising.
Knowing that a market is growing is not enough. Companies need to understand why it is growing.
If growth is mainly driven by population, increasing product availability, lower relative prices or rising purchasing power, the implications for positioning, assortment, value segments and market-entry strategy are very different.
After more than three decades of data across 124 countries, one signal is more consistent than the others: as income rises, the economic space available for seafood tends to expand.
How that space is ultimately filled depends on the market.
